DEWS: Drone Early Warning System

NU 2024-236

INVENTORS

• Venkatramanan Subrahmanian* (McCormick School of Engineering, Computer Science)
• Marco Postiglione
• Tonmoay Deb
• Valerio La Gatta

SHORT DESCRIPTION

DEWS provides rapid and accurate drone threat predictions. The system targets security agencies by flagging potentially dangerous drone trajectories within 20-30 seconds of flight initiation.

BACKGROUND

Recent years have seen a surge in drone use by terror groups and in armed conflict. Existing detection systems focus on tracking drone locations rather than assessing threat levels. These methods often miss early signs of a high-risk trajectory, leaving critical urban assets vulnerable.

ABSTRACT

DEWS is a novel framework that predicts the threat level of drone trajectories. The system fuses flight dynamics with ground asset values to distinguish potentially dangerous paths. It made accurate predictions—with an F1-score greater than 80%—within 20-30 seconds of flight onset using real-world data collected over The Hague. DEWS highlights the tradeoff between early prediction and accuracy, offering a timely solution for urban security challenges.

MARKET OPPORTUNITY

The global counter-drone market is valued at $2.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $6.7 billion by 2030, growing at an aggressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8%. This market's rapid expansion is a direct result of the demonstrated effectiveness of weaponized drones in recent geopolitical conflicts and the rising threat they pose to military assets and critical civilian infrastructure. (Source: MarketsandMarkets: "Counter-Drone Market - Global Forecast to 2030").

DEVELOPMENT STAGE

TRL-4 - Prototype Validated in Lab: Key functions have been demonstrated using historical drone trajectory data and threat annotations in a controlled laboratory setting.

APPLICATIONS

• Urban security: Rapid threat assessment for city authorities.
• Defense operations: Early warning for military and law enforcement agencies.
• Critical infrastructure protection: Monitoring high-value targets.
• Real-time situational awareness: Supports prompt decision making during drone incursions.

ADVANTAGES

• Fast prediction: Identifies threat levels within 20-30 seconds of flight.
• High accuracy: Achieves an F1-score over 80% in early assessments.
• Early intervention: Offers time-critical intelligence to neutralize threats.
• Asset-based evaluation: Incorporates ground asset values to enhance risk determination.

PUBLICATIONS

• Subrahmanian et al, A Drone Early Warning System for Predicting Threatening Trajectories, IEEE Intelligent Systems, 2024

IP STATUS

U.S. Patent Pending.